Given the fact that it appears Obama will clinch the nomination for the Democratic ticket in November, I think this website is particularly interesting and possibly a little disappointing to many of the Obama supporters. Fivethirtyeight.com has an extremely detailed and up-to-date analysis of match-ups between Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain for possible outcomes in the November election.
Though Obama currently has more of the popular vote and more delegates to the Democratic convention, it appears that Clinton actually enjoys a huge advantage over Obama in a head-to-head comparison against McCain. Clinton enjoys a slightly larger percentage of the popular vote in a match-up against McCain, as well as nine-point higher winning percentage among all states and a 15-vote advantage in the electoral college. For a party that seems almost ready to have an official front-runner and nominee for the 2008 Presidential Election, this may be slightly disturbing news.
Of course, one must consider that polls are often inaccurate and unreliable to begin with. However, with such a consistent advantage that Clinton enjoys over Obama in comparison to McCain in so many different national polls and in the national poll of polls, is Obama doomed in November should he receive the nomination, or will his slight lead over McCain be enough to help pull him through? You’ll have to check back for more on that in November.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
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